Qualification · Qualification 59

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

268.59 – 202.14

70%30%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

382 – 216

Prediction correct · off by 63.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 579.1 ±11.7

8044Denham Venom

Season APEX 340.9Event APEX 161.89Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7485Mo Co Robo

Season APEX 99.7Event APEX 10.8Rank 29Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1339Angelbotics

Season APEX 138.5Event APEX 95.9Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 507.1 ±11.7

10114Phantom Talons

Season APEX 131.5Event APEX 23.99Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2996Cougars Gone Wired

Season APEX 272.6Event APEX 127.5Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1977The PowerSquids

Season APEX 103Event APEX 50.65Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8044, 7485, 1339

/ 100 compat

Projected

268.6 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 8044, 7485, 1339

Auto

64.6 25%

Teleop

137.1 52%

Endgame

61.9 23%

Strengths

· 8044 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10114, 2996, 1977

/ 100 compat

Projected

202.1 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 10114, 2996, 1977

Auto

48.7 24%

Teleop

98.0 48%

Endgame

56.0 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.04 · Blue 1.29

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score268.6pts

Blue projected score202.1pts

Red win probability70%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 66.4
Score range: 171–300
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 598 vs event baseline 173.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

579.1Season APEX507.1

64.6Auto48.7

137.1Teleop98

61.9Endgame56

83Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	81	58
teleop	192	98
endgame	94	60
foul	15	0
total	382	216

Result

Final score

382 – 216

Prediction correct · off by 63.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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