Qualification · Qualification 58

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

312.41 – 84.95

94%6%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

326 – 30

Prediction correct · off by 34.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 520 ±12.8

662Rocky Mountain Robotics

Season APEX 120.6Event APEX 37.93Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 95

498The Cobra Commanders

A+

Season APEX 318.2Event APEX 235.6Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9501Sidereal Envoy

Season APEX 81.2Event APEX 38.88Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 312.9 ±13.3

4944The Hi Fives

Season APEX 127.2Event APEX 50.16Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4183Bit Buckets

Season APEX 87.3Event APEX 16.4Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11220The Royal Guard

Season APEX 98.4Event APEX 18.39Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 662, 498, 9501

/ 100 compat

Projected

312.4 pts

~2.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 662, 498, 9501

Auto

53.2 18%

Teleop

168.9 56%

Endgame

77.3 26%

Strengths

· 498 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4944, 4183, 11220

/ 100 compat

Projected

85 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 4944, 4183, 11220

Auto

1.9 2%

Teleop

47.7 63%

Endgame

26.6 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.54 · Blue 0.7

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score312.4pts

Blue projected score85pts

Red win probability94%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 227.5
Score range: 54–343
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 356 vs event baseline 173.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

520Season APEX312.9

53.2Auto1.9

168.9Teleop47.7

77.3Endgame26.6

5Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	75	13
teleop	192	4
endgame	59	13
foul	0	0
total	326	30

Result

Final score

326 – 30

Prediction correct · off by 34.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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