Qualification · Qualification 57

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

203.15 – 161.61

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

273 – 92

Prediction correct · off by 69.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 559.8 ±12.2

4418IMPULSE

Season APEX 99.5Event APEX 0.55Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1619Up-A-Creek Robotics

Season APEX 246.4Event APEX 82.35Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2240Brute Force

Season APEX 213.9Event APEX 120.25Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 332.4 ±13.3

9134Tecmilenio - DEVOLT

Season APEX 120.9Event APEX 69.78Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8334Titan Robotics

Season APEX 75.3Event APEX 33.54Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4293Komodo

Season APEX 136.2Event APEX 58.29Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 95

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4418, 1619, 2240

/ 100 compat

Projected

203.1 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 4418, 1619, 2240

Auto

56.9 29%

Teleop

104.3 54%

Endgame

32.1 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9134, 8334, 4293

/ 100 compat

Projected

161.6 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 9134, 8334, 4293

Auto

23.0 15%

Teleop

85.3 56%

Endgame

44.4 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.87 · Blue 1.28

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score203.1pts

Blue projected score161.6pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 41.5
Score range: 131–234
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 365 vs event baseline 173.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

559.8Season APEX332.4

56.9Auto23

104.3Teleop85.3

32.1Endgame44.4

22Consistency38

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	48	17
teleop	177	33
endgame	43	42
foul	5	0
total	273	92

Result

Final score

273 – 92

Prediction correct · off by 69.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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