Qualification · Qualification 56

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

244.41 – 172.75

71%29%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

139 – 138

Prediction correct · off by 70.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 476.2 ±13.5

5493SMAbotics

Season APEX 88.4Event APEX 29.29Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 94

9068The Chargers

A+

Season APEX 291.9Event APEX 196.03Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2083Team Blitz

Season APEX 95.9Event APEX 19.09Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 92

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 510.1 ±11.7

9586Denbot

Season APEX 123.8Event APEX 1.66Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6358The Buhlean Operators

Season APEX 85.2Event APEX 27.99Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4499The Highlanders

A+

Season APEX 301.1Event APEX 143.1Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5493, 9068, 2083

/ 100 compat

Projected

244.4 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 5493, 9068, 2083

Auto

55.0 23%

Teleop

130.1 54%

Endgame

54.4 23%

Strengths

· 9068 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9586, 6358, 4499

/ 100 compat

Projected

172.8 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 9586, 6358, 4499

Auto

45.6 27%

Teleop

81.1 48%

Endgame

43.0 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.06 · Blue 1.15

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score244.4pts

Blue projected score172.8pts

Red win probability71%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 71.7
Score range: 142–275
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 277 vs event baseline 174.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

476.2Season APEX510.1

55Auto45.6

130.1Teleop81.1

54.4Endgame43

7Consistency91

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	45	13
teleop	58	80
endgame	31	30
foul	5	15
total	139	138

Result

Final score

139 – 138

Prediction correct · off by 70.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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