Qualification · Qualification 54

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

113.55 – 146.52

40%60%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

132 – 157

Prediction correct · off by 14.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 452.1 ±10.4

10333Elevation

Season APEX 74.2Event APEX 14.3Rank 32Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1619Up-A-Creek Robotics

Season APEX 246.4Event APEX 79.96Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10114Phantom Talons

Season APEX 131.5Event APEX 19.29Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 318 ±12.7

4944The Hi Fives

Season APEX 127.2Event APEX 46.98Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9134Tecmilenio - DEVOLT

Season APEX 120.9Event APEX 68.4Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

159Alpine Robotics

Season APEX 69.9Event APEX 31.14Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 95

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10333, 1619, 10114

/ 100 compat

Projected

113.5 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 10333, 1619, 10114

Auto

38.8 37%

Teleop

44.2 42%

Endgame

21.5 21%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4944, 9134, 159

/ 100 compat

Projected

146.5 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 4944, 9134, 159

Auto

17.6 13%

Teleop

85.0 61%

Endgame

37.6 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.4 · Blue 1.85

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score113.5pts

Blue projected score146.5pts

Red win probability40%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -33
Score range: 83–178
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 289 vs event baseline 173.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

452.1Season APEX318

38.8Auto17.6

44.2Teleop85

21.5Endgame37.6

6Consistency12

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	54	12
teleop	62	102
endgame	16	43
foul	0	0
total	132	157

Result

Final score

132 – 157

Prediction correct · off by 14.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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