Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

403.53 – 140.51

96%4%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

299 – 42

Prediction correct · off by 101.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 755 ±11.9

498The Cobra Commanders

A+

Season APEX 318.2Event APEX 224.57Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2083Team Blitz

Season APEX 95.9Event APEX 8.88Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 92

8044Denham Venom

Season APEX 340.9Event APEX 170.08Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 404.7 ±12.8

5493SMAbotics

Season APEX 88.4Event APEX 11.93Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 94

159Alpine Robotics

Season APEX 69.9Event APEX 32.94Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 95

1619Up-A-Creek Robotics

Season APEX 246.4Event APEX 95.64Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 498, 2083, 8044

/ 100 compat

Projected

403.5 pts

~2.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 498, 2083, 8044

Auto

83.8 21%

Teleop

215.4 54%

Endgame

96.5 24%

Strengths

· 498 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5493, 159, 1619

/ 100 compat

Projected

140.5 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 5493, 159, 1619

Auto

29.7 22%

Teleop

74.8 54%

Endgame

33.1 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.63 · Blue 0.68

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score403.5pts

Blue projected score140.5pts

Red win probability96%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 263
Score range: 107–438
Upset likelihood: 4%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 341 vs event baseline 189.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

755Season APEX404.7

83.8Auto29.7

215.4Teleop74.8

96.5Endgame33.1

39Consistency16

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	87	8
teleop	170	22
endgame	32	7
foul	10	5
total	299	42

Result

Final score

299 – 42

Prediction correct · off by 101.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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