Qualification · Qualification 49

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

214.93 – 257.84

37%63%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

305 – 194

Prediction missed · off by 77 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 561.8 ±11.1

3288Punchers

Season APEX 60.7Event APEX 13.25Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8044Denham Venom

Season APEX 340.9Event APEX 146.13Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4068Bearbotics

Season APEX 160.2Event APEX 55.55Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 516.2 ±11.7

10333Elevation

Season APEX 74.2Event APEX 23.93Rank 32Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9586Denbot

Season APEX 123.8Event APEX 1.54Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

498The Cobra Commanders

A+

Season APEX 318.2Event APEX 232.37Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3288, 8044, 4068

/ 100 compat

Projected

214.9 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 3288, 8044, 4068

Auto

51.7 24%

Teleop

104.3 49%

Endgame

55.8 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 10333, 9586, 498

/ 100 compat

Projected

257.8 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 10333, 9586, 498

Auto

44.5 18%

Teleop

146.6 59%

Endgame

57.6 23%

Strengths

· 498 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.34 · Blue 1.9

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score214.9pts

Blue projected score257.8pts

Red win probability37%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -42.9
Score range: 184–289
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 499 vs event baseline 171.7.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

561.8Season APEX516.2

51.7Auto44.5

104.3Teleop146.6

55.8Endgame57.6

106Consistency27

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	77	67
teleop	125	80
endgame	103	32
foul	0	15
total	305	194

Result

Final score

305 – 194

Prediction missed · off by 77 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.