Qualification · Qualification 48

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

92.48 – 226.56

16%84%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

103 – 305

Prediction correct · off by 44.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 363.6 ±13.5

10114Phantom Talons

Season APEX 131.5Event APEX 19.29Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4293Komodo

Season APEX 136.2Event APEX 55.26Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 95

2083Team Blitz

Season APEX 95.9Event APEX 17.93Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 92

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 510.9 ±12.8

11220The Royal Guard

Season APEX 98.4Event APEX 5.21Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9068The Chargers

A+

Season APEX 291.9Event APEX 194.23Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

662Rocky Mountain Robotics

Season APEX 120.6Event APEX 27.12Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 95

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10114, 4293, 2083

/ 100 compat

Projected

92.5 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 10114, 4293, 2083

Auto

26.0 29%

Teleop

29.3 33%

Endgame

33.1 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11220, 9068, 662

/ 100 compat

Projected

226.6 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 11220, 9068, 662

Auto

44.1 21%

Teleop

111.9 53%

Endgame

57.1 27%

Strengths

· 9068 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.92 · Blue 2.32

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score92.5pts

Blue projected score226.6pts

Red win probability16%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -134.1
Score range: 61–258
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 408 vs event baseline 171.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

363.6Season APEX510.9

26Auto44.1

29.3Teleop111.9

33.1Endgame57.1

0Consistency35

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	50
teleop	62	163
endgame	23	87
foul	0	5
total	103	305

Result

Final score

103 – 305

Prediction correct · off by 44.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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