Qualification · Qualification 47

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

214.56 – 134.75

73%27%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

215 – 118

Prediction correct · off by 8.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 509.3 ±12.4

4499The Highlanders

A+

Season APEX 301.1Event APEX 159.04Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

159Alpine Robotics

Season APEX 69.9Event APEX 29.08Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 95

3648Sparta Robotica

Season APEX 138.3Event APEX 26.44Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 400.9 ±13.9

4183Bit Buckets

Season APEX 87.3Event APEX 8.76Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2240Brute Force

Season APEX 213.9Event APEX 111.09Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7485Mo Co Robo

Season APEX 99.7Event APEX 14.9Rank 29Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4499, 159, 3648

/ 100 compat

Projected

214.6 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 4499, 159, 3648

Auto

46.7 22%

Teleop

135.0 63%

Endgame

32.4 15%

Strengths

· 4499 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 4183, 2240, 7485

/ 100 compat

Projected

134.8 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 4183, 2240, 7485

Auto

45.2 36%

Teleop

72.4 58%

Endgame

7.6 6%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.04 · Blue 1.14

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score214.6pts

Blue projected score134.8pts

Red win probability73%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 79.8
Score range: 104–246
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 333 vs event baseline 171.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

509.3Season APEX400.9

46.7Auto45.2

135Teleop72.4

32.4Endgame7.6

28Consistency18

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	50	50
teleop	86	40
endgame	79	28
foul	0	0
total	215	118

Result

Final score

215 – 118

Prediction correct · off by 8.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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