Qualification · Qualification 45

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

25.74 – 82.25

33%67%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

27 – 37

Prediction correct · off by 23.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 238.7 ±14.5

3807Overland BlazerBots

Season APEX 69.4Event APEX 21.15Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 94

2945Steel Mustangs

Season APEX 103.7Event APEX -12.14Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 92

4550Something's Bruin

Season APEX 65.6Event APEX 16.73Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 263.2 ±13.3

8334Titan Robotics

Season APEX 75.3Event APEX 35.59Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5493SMAbotics

Season APEX 88.4Event APEX 36.96Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 94

4418IMPULSE

Season APEX 99.5Event APEX 9.7Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3807, 2945, 4550

/ 100 compat

Projected

25.7 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 3807, 2945, 4550

Auto

16.2 54%

Teleop

0.8 3%

Endgame

13.1 44%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 8334, 5493, 4418

/ 100 compat

Projected

82.3 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 8334, 5493, 4418

Auto

18.5 24%

Teleop

44.7 57%

Endgame

15.0 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.15 · Blue 1.82

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score25.7pts

Blue projected score82.3pts

Red win probability33%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -56.5
Score range: -5–113
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 64 vs event baseline 174.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

238.7Season APEX263.2

16.2Auto18.5

0.8Teleop44.7

13.1Endgame15

32Consistency39

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	9	15
teleop	8	8
endgame	10	14
foul	0	0
total	27	37

Result

Final score

27 – 37

Prediction correct · off by 23.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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