Qualification · Qualification 44

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

151.66 – 306.64

13%87%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

142 – 241

Prediction correct · off by 37.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 496.1 ±12.8

9586Denbot

Season APEX 123.8Event APEX 4.29Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7485Mo Co Robo

Season APEX 99.7Event APEX 16.83Rank 29Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2996Cougars Gone Wired

Season APEX 272.6Event APEX 130.54Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 625.6 ±11.7

4183Bit Buckets

Season APEX 87.3Event APEX 15.25Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1619Up-A-Creek Robotics

Season APEX 246.4Event APEX 89.94Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9068The Chargers

A+

Season APEX 291.9Event APEX 201.45Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9586, 7485, 2996

/ 100 compat

Projected

151.7 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 9586, 7485, 2996

Auto

35.9 24%

Teleop

87.6 59%

Endgame

25.6 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 4183, 1619, 9068

/ 100 compat

Projected

306.6 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 4183, 1619, 9068

Auto

55.2 18%

Teleop

172.9 57%

Endgame

75.0 25%

Strengths

· 9068 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.89 · Blue 2.39

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score151.7pts

Blue projected score306.6pts

Red win probability13%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -155
Score range: 121–338
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 383 vs event baseline 173.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

496.1Season APEX625.6

35.9Auto55.2

87.6Teleop172.9

25.6Endgame75

21Consistency42

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	57
teleop	70	121
endgame	47	33
foul	5	30
total	142	241

Result

Final score

142 – 241

Prediction correct · off by 37.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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