Qualification · Qualification 42

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

203.64 – 332.62

17%83%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

143 – 234

Prediction correct · off by 79.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 390.9 ±11.6

10114Phantom Talons

Season APEX 131.5Event APEX 21.18Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1339Angelbotics

Season APEX 138.5Event APEX 104.99Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9134Tecmilenio - DEVOLT

Season APEX 120.9Event APEX 77.47Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 566 ±11.7

4499The Highlanders

A+

Season APEX 301.1Event APEX 174.64Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4388Ridgebotics

Season APEX 104.7Event APEX 94.36Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 94

4068Bearbotics

Season APEX 160.2Event APEX 63.62Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10114, 1339, 9134

/ 100 compat

Projected

203.6 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 10114, 1339, 9134

Auto

55.5 29%

Teleop

100.0 52%

Endgame

37.7 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4499, 4388, 4068

/ 100 compat

Projected

332.6 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 4499, 4388, 4068

Auto

66.6 21%

Teleop

193.9 60%

Endgame

62.7 19%

Strengths

· 4499 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.99 · Blue 2.34

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score203.6pts

Blue projected score332.6pts

Red win probability17%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -129
Score range: 173–364
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 377 vs event baseline 171.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

390.9Season APEX566

55.5Auto66.6

100Teleop193.9

37.7Endgame62.7

32Consistency53

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	60	41
teleop	56	130
endgame	27	63
foul	0	0
total	143	234

Result

Final score

143 – 234

Prediction correct · off by 79.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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