Qualification · Qualification 39

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

169.97 – 10.42

88%12%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

193 – 64

Prediction correct · off by 38.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 369.5 ±12.7

9134Tecmilenio - DEVOLT

Season APEX 120.9Event APEX 74.79Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5493SMAbotics

Season APEX 88.4Event APEX 31.18Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 94

4068Bearbotics

Season APEX 160.2Event APEX 64Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 297.6 ±13.3

4418IMPULSE

Season APEX 99.5Event APEX 5.67Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7485Mo Co Robo

Season APEX 99.7Event APEX 6.7Rank 29Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11220The Royal Guard

Season APEX 98.4Event APEX -1.95Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9134, 5493, 4068

/ 100 compat

Projected

170 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 9134, 5493, 4068

Auto

38.9 24%

Teleop

74.9 46%

Endgame

47.5 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 4418, 7485, 11220

/ 100 compat

Projected

10.4 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 4418, 7485, 11220

Auto

7.3 55%

Teleop

3.2 24%

Endgame

2.7 20%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.36 · Blue 0.77

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score170pts

Blue projected score10.4pts

Red win probability88%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 159.6
Score range: -21–201
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 257 vs event baseline 173.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

369.5Season APEX297.6

38.9Auto7.3

74.9Teleop3.2

47.5Endgame2.7

27Consistency25

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	48	12
teleop	106	22
endgame	39	15
foul	0	15
total	193	64

Result

Final score

193 – 64

Prediction correct · off by 38.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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