Qualification · Qualification 38

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

285.28 – 52.48

95%5%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

216 – 84

Prediction correct · off by 50.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 481 ±12.2

1339Angelbotics

Season APEX 138.5Event APEX 115.19Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2996Cougars Gone Wired

Season APEX 272.6Event APEX 138.13Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

159Alpine Robotics

Season APEX 69.9Event APEX 31.96Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 95

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 325.1 ±13.9

6358The Buhlean Operators

Season APEX 85.2Event APEX 32.39Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4293Komodo

Season APEX 136.2Event APEX 35.05Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 95

2945Steel Mustangs

Season APEX 103.7Event APEX -14.96Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 92

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1339, 2996, 159

/ 100 compat

Projected

285.3 pts

~2.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 1339, 2996, 159

Auto

49.0 18%

Teleop

159.7 58%

Endgame

66.4 24%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 6358, 4293, 2945

/ 100 compat

Projected

52.5 pts

~0.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 6358, 4293, 2945

Auto

11.9 28%

Teleop

11.2 26%

Endgame

19.3 46%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.64 · Blue 0.58

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score285.3pts

Blue projected score52.5pts

Red win probability95%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 67%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 232.8
Score range: 21–316
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 300 vs event baseline 174.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

481Season APEX325.1

49Auto11.9

159.7Teleop11.2

66.4Endgame19.3

30Consistency38

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	33	13
teleop	137	54
endgame	46	17
foul	0	0
total	216	84

Result

Final score

216 – 84

Prediction correct · off by 50.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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