Qualification · Qualification 37

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

131.53 – 114.62

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

83 – 134

Prediction missed · off by 34 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 490.8 ±12.8

1619Up-A-Creek Robotics

Season APEX 246.4Event APEX 93.88Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

662Rocky Mountain Robotics

Season APEX 120.6Event APEX 21.17Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 95

9586Denbot

Season APEX 123.8Event APEX 16.48Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 244.5 ±12.8

4550Something's Bruin

Season APEX 65.6Event APEX 6.75Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10333Elevation

Season APEX 74.2Event APEX 13.67Rank 32Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4388Ridgebotics

Season APEX 104.7Event APEX 94.2Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 94

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1619, 662, 9586

/ 100 compat

Projected

131.5 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 1619, 662, 9586

Auto

17.3 14%

Teleop

64.2 50%

Endgame

45.8 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4550, 10333, 4388

/ 100 compat

Projected

114.6 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 4550, 10333, 4388

Auto

16.0 14%

Teleop

69.2 61%

Endgame

28.5 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.7 · Blue 1.54

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score131.5pts

Blue projected score114.6pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 16.9
Score range: 83–164
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 217 vs event baseline 176.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

490.8Season APEX244.5

17.3Auto16

64.2Teleop69.2

45.8Endgame28.5

74Consistency1

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	19
teleop	45	61
endgame	10	39
foul	0	15
total	83	134

Result

Final score

83 – 134

Prediction missed · off by 34 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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