Qualification · Qualification 36

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

249.97 – 253.97

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

433 – 261

Prediction missed · off by 95 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 533.8 ±12.2

4944The Hi Fives

Season APEX 127.2Event APEX 20.01Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5493SMAbotics

Season APEX 88.4Event APEX 6.88Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 94

498The Cobra Commanders

A+

Season APEX 318.2Event APEX 223.08Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 505.5 ±12.8

9068The Chargers

A+

Season APEX 291.9Event APEX 195.46Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8334Titan Robotics

Season APEX 75.3Event APEX 28.89Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3648Sparta Robotica

Season APEX 138.3Event APEX 29.62Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4944, 5493, 498

/ 100 compat

Projected

250 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 4944, 5493, 498

Auto

42.5 18%

Teleop

147.8 61%

Endgame

52.3 22%

Strengths

· 498 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 9068, 8334, 3648

/ 100 compat

Projected

254 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 9068, 8334, 3648

Auto

63.1 25%

Teleop

138.3 55%

Endgame

47.9 19%

Strengths

· 9068 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.67 · Blue 1.54

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score250pts

Blue projected score254pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 12%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -4
Score range: 219–285
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 694 vs event baseline 171.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

533.8Season APEX505.5

42.5Auto63.1

147.8Teleop138.3

52.3Endgame47.9

50Consistency38

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	70	33
teleop	258	164
endgame	90	64
foul	15	0
total	433	261

Result

Final score

433 – 261

Prediction missed · off by 95 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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