Qualification · Qualification 35

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

176.54 – 291.21

19%81%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

210 – 337

Prediction correct · off by 39.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 542.3 ±12.4

8044Denham Venom

Season APEX 340.9Event APEX 137.52Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11220The Royal Guard

Season APEX 98.4Event APEX -3.44Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1977The PowerSquids

Season APEX 103Event APEX 42.46Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 646.5 ±11.2

2240Brute Force

Season APEX 213.9Event APEX 95.97Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4499The Highlanders

A+

Season APEX 301.1Event APEX 168.13Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10114Phantom Talons

Season APEX 131.5Event APEX 27.11Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8044, 11220, 1977

/ 100 compat

Projected

176.5 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 8044, 11220, 1977

Auto

38.4 22%

Teleop

86.4 49%

Endgame

51.6 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2240, 4499, 10114

/ 100 compat

Projected

291.2 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 2240, 4499, 10114

Auto

83.8 28%

Teleop

159.0 53%

Endgame

54.8 18%

Strengths

· 4499 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.02 · Blue 2.29

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score176.5pts

Blue projected score291.2pts

Red win probability19%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -114.7
Score range: 147–321
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 547 vs event baseline 168.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

542.3Season APEX646.5

38.4Auto83.8

86.4Teleop159

51.6Endgame54.8

59Consistency30

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	45	111
teleop	76	160
endgame	84	36
foul	5	30
total	210	337

Result

Final score

210 – 337

Prediction correct · off by 39.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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