Qualification · Qualification 34

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

22.32 – 63.88

37%63%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

66 – 53

Prediction missed · off by 27.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 256.2 ±13.3

3807Overland BlazerBots

Season APEX 69.4Event APEX 12.65Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 94

4183Bit Buckets

Season APEX 87.3Event APEX 10.76Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4418IMPULSE

Season APEX 99.5Event APEX -1.09Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 237.8 ±13.9

9501Sidereal Envoy

Season APEX 81.2Event APEX 45.84Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3288Punchers

Season APEX 60.7Event APEX 8.95Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2083Team Blitz

Season APEX 95.9Event APEX 9.09Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 92

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3807, 4183, 4418

/ 100 compat

Projected

22.3 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 3807, 4183, 4418

Auto

2.7 13%

Teleop

16.4 77%

Endgame

2.2 10%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 9501, 3288, 2083

/ 100 compat

Projected

63.9 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 9501, 3288, 2083

Auto

22.6 43%

Teleop

17.3 33%

Endgame

12.2 23%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.24 · Blue 1.82

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score22.3pts

Blue projected score63.9pts

Red win probability37%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -41.6
Score range: -9–95
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 119 vs event baseline 171.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

256.2Season APEX237.8

2.7Auto22.6

16.4Teleop17.3

2.2Endgame12.2

44Consistency16

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	14
teleop	36	24
endgame	17	15
foul	0	0
total	66	53

Result

Final score

66 – 53

Prediction missed · off by 27.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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