Qualification · Qualification 33

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

5.44 – 276.48

3%97%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

31 – 279

Prediction correct · off by 14 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 298.5 ±13.5

2945Steel Mustangs

Season APEX 103.7Event APEX -21.98Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 92

10333Elevation

Season APEX 74.2Event APEX 13.3Rank 32Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

662Rocky Mountain Robotics

Season APEX 120.6Event APEX 14.12Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 95

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 575.9 ±12.2

4068Bearbotics

Season APEX 160.2Event APEX 62.18Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9068The Chargers

A+

Season APEX 291.9Event APEX 196.83Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9586Denbot

Season APEX 123.8Event APEX 17.47Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2945, 10333, 662

/ 100 compat

Projected

5.4 pts

~0.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 2945, 10333, 662

Auto

2.7 0%

Teleop

-21.5 100%

Endgame

10.7 0%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4068, 9068, 9586

/ 100 compat

Projected

276.5 pts

~2.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 4068, 9068, 9586

Auto

49.8 19%

Teleop

142.8 53%

Endgame

74.8 28%

Strengths

· 9068 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.59 · Blue 2.57

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score5.4pts

Blue projected score276.5pts

Red win probability3%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -271
Score range: -26–307
Upset likelihood: 3%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 310 vs event baseline 172.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

298.5Season APEX575.9

2.7Auto49.8

-21.5Teleop142.8

10.7Endgame74.8

63Consistency108

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	74
teleop	15	136
endgame	3	69
foul	0	0
total	31	279

Result

Final score

31 – 279

Prediction correct · off by 14 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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