Qualification · Qualification 32

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

432.88 – 83.94

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

493 – 79

Prediction correct · off by 32.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 837.2 ±10.4

2996Cougars Gone Wired

Season APEX 272.6Event APEX 130.26Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

498The Cobra Commanders

A+

Season APEX 318.2Event APEX 213.57Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1619Up-A-Creek Robotics

Season APEX 246.4Event APEX 89.05Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 305.1 ±12.2

6358The Buhlean Operators

Season APEX 85.2Event APEX 42.96Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10114Phantom Talons

Season APEX 131.5Event APEX 29.88Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5493SMAbotics

Season APEX 88.4Event APEX 11.1Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 94

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2996, 498, 1619

/ 100 compat

Projected

432.9 pts

~2.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 2996, 498, 1619

Auto

75.7 18%

Teleop

245.2 58%

Endgame

100.3 24%

Strengths

· 498 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 6358, 10114, 5493

/ 100 compat

Projected

83.9 pts

~0.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 6358, 10114, 5493

Auto

39.5 52%

Teleop

21.3 28%

Endgame

15.0 20%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.73 · Blue 0.58

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score432.9pts

Blue projected score83.9pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 12%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 348.9
Score range: 54–463
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 572 vs event baseline 168.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

837.2Season APEX305.1

75.7Auto39.5

245.2Teleop21.3

100.3Endgame15

1Consistency26

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	74	32
teleop	280	26
endgame	134	21
foul	5	0
total	493	79

Result

Final score

493 – 79

Prediction correct · off by 32.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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