Qualification · Qualification 30

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

111.49 – 48.63

69%31%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

190 – 76

Prediction correct · off by 52.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 307.2 ±13.3

4388Ridgebotics

Season APEX 104.7Event APEX 86.46Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 94

8334Titan Robotics

Season APEX 75.3Event APEX 16.35Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4944The Hi Fives

Season APEX 127.2Event APEX 8.68Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 253.1 ±14.5

159Alpine Robotics

Season APEX 69.9Event APEX 30.9Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 95

2083Team Blitz

Season APEX 95.9Event APEX 14.18Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 92

4183Bit Buckets

Season APEX 87.3Event APEX 3.55Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4388, 8334, 4944

/ 100 compat

Projected

111.5 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 4388, 8334, 4944

Auto

5.9 6%

Teleop

80.9 76%

Endgame

20.3 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 159, 2083, 4183

/ 100 compat

Projected

48.6 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 159, 2083, 4183

Auto

16.4 37%

Teleop

42.3 95%

Endgame

-14.3 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.96 · Blue 1.22

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score111.5pts

Blue projected score48.6pts

Red win probability69%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 62.9
Score range: 18–142
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 266 vs event baseline 169.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

307.2Season APEX253.1

5.9Auto16.4

80.9Teleop42.3

20.3Endgame-14.3

121Consistency31

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	0
teleop	104	36
endgame	43	40
foul	20	0
total	190	76

Result

Final score

190 – 76

Prediction correct · off by 52.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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