Qualification · Qualification 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

62.36 – 140.5

27%73%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

30 – 230

Prediction correct · off by 60.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 272.2 ±14.5

2945Steel Mustangs

Season APEX 103.7Event APEX -3.14Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 92

9501Sidereal Envoy

Season APEX 81.2Event APEX 51.41Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4183Bit Buckets

Season APEX 87.3Event APEX 14.09Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 436 ±10.5

10333Elevation

Season APEX 74.2Event APEX 8.76Rank 32Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4499The Highlanders

A+

Season APEX 301.1Event APEX 119.45Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3288Punchers

Season APEX 60.7Event APEX 12.29Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2945, 9501, 4183

/ 100 compat

Projected

62.4 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 2945, 9501, 4183

Auto

19.8 34%

Teleop

31.4 53%

Endgame

7.6 13%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10333, 4499, 3288

/ 100 compat

Projected

140.5 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 10333, 4499, 3288

Auto

45.3 33%

Teleop

68.7 51%

Endgame

21.7 16%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.05 · Blue 2.04

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score62.4pts

Blue projected score140.5pts

Red win probability27%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -78.1
Score range: 28–175
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 260 vs event baseline 189.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

272.2Season APEX436

19.8Auto45.3

31.4Teleop68.7

7.6Endgame21.7

0Consistency36

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	5	53
teleop	15	148
endgame	0	29
foul	10	0
total	30	230

Result

Final score

30 – 230

Prediction correct · off by 60.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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