Qualification · Qualification 28

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

356.82 – 217.29

85%15%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

405 – 306

Prediction correct · off by 68.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 700.7 ±11.7

9068The Chargers

A+

Season APEX 291.9Event APEX 195.98Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2996Cougars Gone Wired

Season APEX 272.6Event APEX 124.49Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4293Komodo

Season APEX 136.2Event APEX 36.35Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 95

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 543 ±11.7

8044Denham Venom

Season APEX 340.9Event APEX 132.91Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9134Tecmilenio - DEVOLT

Season APEX 120.9Event APEX 53.45Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9501Sidereal Envoy

Season APEX 81.2Event APEX 30.93Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9068, 2996, 4293

/ 100 compat

Projected

356.8 pts

~2.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 9068, 2996, 4293

Auto

67.0 20%

Teleop

182.2 54%

Endgame

87.8 26%

Strengths

· 9068 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 8044, 9134, 9501

/ 100 compat

Projected

217.3 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 8044, 9134, 9501

Auto

59.0 29%

Teleop

114.9 56%

Endgame

32.1 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.45 · Blue 0.95

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score356.8pts

Blue projected score217.3pts

Red win probability85%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 12%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 139.5
Score range: 187–387
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 711 vs event baseline 165.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

700.7Season APEX543

67Auto59

182.2Teleop114.9

87.8Endgame32.1

72Consistency55

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	71	57
teleop	208	134
endgame	121	100
foul	5	15
total	405	306

Result

Final score

405 – 306

Prediction correct · off by 68.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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