Qualification · Qualification 25

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

137.24 – 183.29

36%64%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

76 – 333

Prediction correct · off by 105.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 310.3 ±13.3

9134Tecmilenio - DEVOLT

Season APEX 120.9Event APEX 73.99Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4550Something's Bruin

Season APEX 65.6Event APEX 32.49Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9586Denbot

Season APEX 123.8Event APEX 30.76Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 487.8 ±12.8

7485Mo Co Robo

Season APEX 99.7Event APEX -7.43Rank 29Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

159Alpine Robotics

Season APEX 69.9Event APEX 12.09Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 95

498The Cobra Commanders

A+

Season APEX 318.2Event APEX 178.63Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9134, 4550, 9586

/ 100 compat

Projected

137.2 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 9134, 4550, 9586

Auto

32.6 25%

Teleop

71.9 55%

Endgame

27.1 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7485, 159, 498

/ 100 compat

Projected

183.3 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 7485, 159, 498

Auto

33.3 19%

Teleop

101.0 56%

Endgame

44.5 25%

Strengths

· 498 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.33 · Blue 1.92

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score137.2pts

Blue projected score183.3pts

Red win probability36%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -46
Score range: 106–214
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 409 vs event baseline 172.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

310.3Season APEX487.8

32.6Auto33.3

71.9Teleop101

27.1Endgame44.5

57Consistency60

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	65
teleop	32	224
endgame	21	44
foul	0	0
total	76	333

Result

Final score

76 – 333

Prediction correct · off by 105.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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