Qualification · Qualification 23

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

115.68 – 205.5

25%75%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

22 – 245

Prediction correct · off by 66.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 256.2 ±13.9

11220The Royal Guard

Season APEX 98.4Event APEX 32.42Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3807Overland BlazerBots

Season APEX 69.4Event APEX 36.27Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 94

5493SMAbotics

Season APEX 88.4Event APEX 46.99Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 94

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 583.9 ±12.4

3648Sparta Robotica

Season APEX 138.3Event APEX -9.1Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4388Ridgebotics

Season APEX 104.7Event APEX 88.75Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 94

8044Denham Venom

Season APEX 340.9Event APEX 125.85Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11220, 3807, 5493

/ 100 compat

Projected

115.7 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 11220, 3807, 5493

Auto

9.6 8%

Teleop

49.0 42%

Endgame

58.0 50%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 3648, 4388, 8044

/ 100 compat

Projected

205.5 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 3648, 4388, 8044

Auto

55.0 29%

Teleop

105.3 55%

Endgame

30.5 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.02 · Blue 2.13

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score115.7pts

Blue projected score205.5pts

Red win probability25%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -89.8
Score range: 85–237
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 267 vs event baseline 171.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

256.2Season APEX583.9

9.6Auto55

49Teleop105.3

58Endgame30.5

30Consistency61

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	50
teleop	2	164
endgame	10	31
foul	0	0
total	22	245

Result

Final score

22 – 245

Prediction correct · off by 66.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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