Qualification · Qualification 21

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

128.63 – 218.37

25%75%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

139 – 171

Prediction correct · off by 28.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 363.1 ±13.3

4293Komodo

Season APEX 136.2Event APEX 55.43Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 95

4944The Hi Fives

Season APEX 127.2Event APEX 60.93Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7485Mo Co Robo

Season APEX 99.7Event APEX 12.27Rank 29Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 525.7 ±12.4

2945Steel Mustangs

Season APEX 103.7Event APEX -12.09Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 92

4499The Highlanders

A+

Season APEX 301.1Event APEX 159.36Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9134Tecmilenio - DEVOLT

Season APEX 120.9Event APEX 71.1Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4293, 4944, 7485

/ 100 compat

Projected

128.6 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 4293, 4944, 7485

Auto

11.6 10%

Teleop

72.5 60%

Endgame

37.6 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 2945, 4499, 9134

/ 100 compat

Projected

218.4 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 2945, 4499, 9134

Auto

58.7 27%

Teleop

119.1 56%

Endgame

36.4 17%

Strengths

· 4499 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.08 · Blue 2.05

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score128.6pts

Blue projected score218.4pts

Red win probability25%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -89.7
Score range: 98–249
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 310 vs event baseline 172.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

363.1Season APEX525.7

11.6Auto58.7

72.5Teleop119.1

37.6Endgame36.4

0Consistency61

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	7	55
teleop	98	86
endgame	29	30
foul	5	0
total	139	171

Result

Final score

139 – 171

Prediction correct · off by 28.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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