Qualification · Qualification 20
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
116.53 – 62.03
66%34%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
47 – 166
Prediction missed · off by 86.8 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 333.7 ±13.9
Season APEX 95.9Event APEX 55.3Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 92
Season APEX 99.5Event APEX 59.36Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 138.3Event APEX 1.87Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 360.7 ±13.3
Season APEX 98.4Event APEX 16.13Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 123.8Event APEX -2.23Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 138.5Event APEX 48.13Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 2083, 4418, 3648
44
/ 100 compatProjected
116.5 pts
~1.8 RP (regional)
Teams: 2083, 4418, 3648
Auto
30.3 26%
Teleop
83.6 71%
Endgame
4.3 4%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Thin endgame coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 47%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 11220, 9586, 1339
29
/ 100 compatProjected
62 pts
~1.3 RP (regional)
Teams: 11220, 9586, 1339
Auto
8.3 16%
Teleop
13.0 25%
Endgame
29.9 58%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 47%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.84 · Blue 1.3
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score116.5pts
Blue projected score62pts
Red win probability66%
Event bonus sample164alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 47%, blue 59%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 54.5
- Score range
- 31–148
- Upset likelihood
- 34%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
333.7Season APEX360.7
30.3Auto8.3
83.6Teleop13
4.3Endgame29.9
59Consistency125
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 16 | 12 |
| teleop | 18 | 112 |
| endgame | 8 | 42 |
| foul | 5 | 0 |
| total | 47 | 166 |
Result
Final score
47 – 166
Prediction missed · off by 86.8 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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