Qualification · Qualification 19

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

134.24 – 238.14

22%78%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

243 – 259

Prediction correct · off by 64.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 503.5 ±11.2

5493SMAbotics

Season APEX 88.4Event APEX 21.41Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 94

8044Denham Venom

Season APEX 340.9Event APEX 107.41Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10333Elevation

Season APEX 74.2Event APEX 5.42Rank 32Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 431.2 ±12.8

159Alpine Robotics

Season APEX 69.9Event APEX -7.86Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 95

3807Overland BlazerBots

Season APEX 69.4Event APEX 36.09Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 94

9068The Chargers

A+

Season APEX 291.9Event APEX 209.91Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5493, 8044, 10333

/ 100 compat

Projected

134.2 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 5493, 8044, 10333

Auto

47.2 38%

Teleop

79.4 64%

Endgame

-1.8 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 159, 3807, 9068

/ 100 compat

Projected

238.1 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 159, 3807, 9068

Auto

36.6 15%

Teleop

149.9 63%

Endgame

52.0 22%

Strengths

· 9068 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.05 · Blue 2.18

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score134.2pts

Blue projected score238.1pts

Red win probability22%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -103.9
Score range: 104–268
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 502 vs event baseline 169.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

503.5Season APEX431.2

47.2Auto36.6

79.4Teleop149.9

-1.8Endgame52

68Consistency38

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	49	55
teleop	100	121
endgame	84	73
foul	10	10
total	243	259

Result

Final score

243 – 259

Prediction correct · off by 64.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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