Qualification · Qualification 18

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

229.05 – 90.04

85%15%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

249 – 133

Prediction correct · off by 31.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 454.1 ±12.8

1619Up-A-Creek Robotics

Season APEX 246.4Event APEX 73.89Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1977The PowerSquids

Season APEX 103Event APEX 81.37Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4388Ridgebotics

Season APEX 104.7Event APEX 73.79Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 94

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 362 ±13.3

662Rocky Mountain Robotics

Season APEX 120.6Event APEX 23.1Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 95

4068Bearbotics

Season APEX 160.2Event APEX 58.73Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9501Sidereal Envoy

Season APEX 81.2Event APEX 8.21Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1619, 1977, 4388

/ 100 compat

Projected

229.1 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 1619, 1977, 4388

Auto

31.2 14%

Teleop

139.7 62%

Endgame

54.7 24%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 662, 4068, 9501

/ 100 compat

Projected

90 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 662, 4068, 9501

Auto

33.3 40%

Teleop

9.2 11%

Endgame

40.4 49%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.35 · Blue 0.91

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score229.1pts

Blue projected score90pts

Red win probability85%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 139
Score range: 60–259
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 382 vs event baseline 167.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

454.1Season APEX362

31.2Auto33.3

139.7Teleop9.2

54.7Endgame40.4

0Consistency130

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	41	19
teleop	144	44
endgame	64	50
foul	0	20
total	249	133

Result

Final score

249 – 133

Prediction correct · off by 31.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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