Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

96.35 – 219.45

18%82%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

107 – 164

Prediction correct · off by 33.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 464.9 ±13.3

9586Denbot

Season APEX 123.8Event APEX -5.12Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4944The Hi Fives

Season APEX 127.2Event APEX 7.02Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2240Brute Force

Season APEX 213.9Event APEX 94.45Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 408.6 ±12.2

8334Titan Robotics

Season APEX 75.3Event APEX 55.63Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3288Punchers

Season APEX 60.7Event APEX 44.28Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2996Cougars Gone Wired

Season APEX 272.6Event APEX 119.54Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9586, 4944, 2240

/ 100 compat

Projected

96.4 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 9586, 4944, 2240

Auto

26.4 30%

Teleop

57.0 64%

Endgame

6.0 7%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 8334, 3288, 2996

/ 100 compat

Projected

219.5 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 8334, 3288, 2996

Auto

54.5 26%

Teleop

121.1 57%

Endgame

37.7 18%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.03 · Blue 2.21

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score96.4pts

Blue projected score219.5pts

Red win probability18%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -123.1
Score range: 65–250
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 271 vs event baseline 169.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

464.9Season APEX408.6

26.4Auto54.5

57Teleop121.1

6Endgame37.7

0Consistency100

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	31
teleop	45	101
endgame	34	27
foul	5	5
total	107	164

Result

Final score

107 – 164

Prediction correct · off by 33.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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