Qualification · Qualification 16

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

140.75 – 217.77

28%72%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

143 – 210

Prediction correct · off by 5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 297.9 ±11.6

10333Elevation

Season APEX 74.2Event APEX 2.2Rank 32Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1339Angelbotics

Season APEX 138.5Event APEX 61.27Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6358The Buhlean Operators

Season APEX 85.2Event APEX 77.28Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 552.8 ±12.8

498The Cobra Commanders

A+

Season APEX 318.2Event APEX 154.35Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4293Komodo

Season APEX 136.2Event APEX 59.21Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 95

11220The Royal Guard

Season APEX 98.4Event APEX 4.21Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10333, 1339, 6358

/ 100 compat

Projected

140.8 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 10333, 1339, 6358

Auto

26.4 20%

Teleop

62.8 47%

Endgame

44.8 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 498, 4293, 11220

/ 100 compat

Projected

217.8 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 498, 4293, 11220

Auto

49.4 23%

Teleop

124.3 58%

Endgame

40.2 19%

Strengths

· 498 anchors offense

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.15 · Blue 2.09

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score140.8pts

Blue projected score217.8pts

Red win probability28%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -77
Score range: 111–248
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 353 vs event baseline 169.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

297.9Season APEX552.8

26.4Auto49.4

62.8Teleop124.3

44.8Endgame40.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	37	15
teleop	83	104
endgame	8	76
foul	15	15
total	143	210

Result

Final score

143 – 210

Prediction correct · off by 5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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