Qualification · Qualification 15

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

101.27 – 186.47

26%74%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

238 – 59

Prediction missed · off by 132.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 463.2 ±12.9

2083Team Blitz

Season APEX 95.9Event APEX 37.29Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 92

9134Tecmilenio - DEVOLT

Season APEX 120.9Event APEX 28.36Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1619Up-A-Creek Robotics

Season APEX 246.4Event APEX 35.62Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 345 ±14.5

3648Sparta Robotica

Season APEX 138.3Event APEX 33.35Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1977The PowerSquids

Season APEX 103Event APEX 108.22Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2945Steel Mustangs

Season APEX 103.7Event APEX 44.9Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 92

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2083, 9134, 1619

/ 100 compat

Projected

101.3 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 2083, 9134, 1619

Auto

31.8 37%

Teleop

34.6 40%

Endgame

20.6 24%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3648, 1977, 2945

/ 100 compat

Projected

186.5 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 3648, 1977, 2945

Auto

37.8 21%

Teleop

89.7 50%

Endgame

51.2 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.13 · Blue 1.96

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score101.3pts

Blue projected score186.5pts

Red win probability26%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -85.2
Score range: 70–217
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 297 vs event baseline 170.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

463.2Season APEX345

31.8Auto37.8

34.6Teleop89.7

20.6Endgame51.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	43	16
teleop	140	37
endgame	55	6
foul	0	0
total	238	59

Result

Final score

238 – 59

Prediction missed · off by 132.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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