Qualification · Qualification 14

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

142.11 – 133.51

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

181 – 98

Prediction correct · off by 37.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 510.3 ±11.7

4418IMPULSE

Season APEX 99.5Event APEX 48.51Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8044Denham Venom

Season APEX 340.9Event APEX 101.53Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

159Alpine Robotics

Season APEX 69.9Event APEX -7.93Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 95

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 325 ±13.9

4388Ridgebotics

Season APEX 104.7Event APEX 89.4Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 94

662Rocky Mountain Robotics

Season APEX 120.6Event APEX 22.33Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 95

7485Mo Co Robo

Season APEX 99.7Event APEX 21.78Rank 29Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4418, 8044, 159

/ 100 compat

Projected

142.1 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 4418, 8044, 159

Auto

41.8 30%

Teleop

70.6 50%

Endgame

28.1 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4388, 662, 7485

/ 100 compat

Projected

133.5 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 4388, 662, 7485

Auto

11.9 9%

Teleop

77.2 59%

Endgame

42.5 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.67 · Blue 1.56

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score142.1pts

Blue projected score133.5pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 8.6
Score range: 103–173
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 279 vs event baseline 173.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

510.3Season APEX325

41.8Auto11.9

70.6Teleop77.2

28.1Endgame42.5

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	36	20
teleop	129	47
endgame	16	26
foul	0	5
total	181	98

Result

Final score

181 – 98

Prediction correct · off by 37.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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