Qualification · Qualification 13

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

243.48 – 138.45

79%21%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

221 – 127

Prediction correct · off by 17 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 504.6 ±11.7

9068The Chargers

A+

Season APEX 291.9Event APEX 204.72Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9501Sidereal Envoy

Season APEX 81.2Event APEX 16.08Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10114Phantom Talons

Season APEX 131.5Event APEX 22.68Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 340.2 ±13.3

2240Brute Force

Season APEX 213.9Event APEX 98.27Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4550Something's Bruin

Season APEX 65.6Event APEX 13.78Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3288Punchers

Season APEX 60.7Event APEX 26.4Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9068, 9501, 10114

/ 100 compat

Projected

243.5 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 9068, 9501, 10114

Auto

45.0 19%

Teleop

144.2 60%

Endgame

50.8 21%

Strengths

· 9068 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2240, 4550, 3288

/ 100 compat

Projected

138.5 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 2240, 4550, 3288

Auto

34.2 25%

Teleop

87.0 63%

Endgame

17.7 13%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.22 · Blue 1.05

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score243.5pts

Blue projected score138.5pts

Red win probability79%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 105
Score range: 107–274
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 348 vs event baseline 173.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

504.6Season APEX340.2

45Auto34.2

144.2Teleop87

50.8Endgame17.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	70	50
teleop	91	69
endgame	45	8
foul	15	0
total	221	127

Result

Final score

221 – 127

Prediction correct · off by 17 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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