Qualification · Qualification 11
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
68.58 – 170.94
22%78%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
148 – 42
Prediction missed · off by 104.2 points
Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.
red allianceTotal Season APEX 324.4 ±14.5
Season APEX 95.9Event APEX 17.86Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 92
Season APEX 123.8Event APEX -14.93Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 104.7Event APEX 65.65Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 94
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 294.8 ±12.2
Season APEX 99.7Event APEX 56.67Rank 29Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 120.9Event APEX 61.84Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 74.2Event APEX 52.43Rank 32Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 2083, 9586, 4388
23
/ 100 compatProjected
68.6 pts
~1.1 RP (regional)
Teams: 2083, 9586, 4388
Auto
21.7 34%
Teleop
61.1 96%
Endgame
-19.3 0%
Strengths
- · Strong autonomous coverage
Weaknesses
- · Thin endgame coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 59%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 7485, 9134, 10333
66
/ 100 compatProjected
170.9 pts
~2.1 RP (regional)
Teams: 7485, 9134, 10333
Auto
37.2 23%
Teleop
99.0 61%
Endgame
26.3 16%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 59%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.07 · Blue 2.15
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score68.6pts
Blue projected score170.9pts
Red win probability22%
Event bonus sample164alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 59%, blue 54%
Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -102.4
- Score range
- 37–203
- Upset likelihood
- 22%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-16
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
324.4Season APEX294.8
21.7Auto37.2
61.1Teleop99
-19.3Endgame26.3
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 12 | 11 |
| teleop | 79 | 22 |
| endgame | 42 | 4 |
| foul | 15 | 5 |
| total | 148 | 42 |
Result
Final score
148 – 42
Prediction missed · off by 104.2 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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