Qualification · Qualification 10
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
130.69 – 25.13
79%21%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
196 – 242
Prediction missed · off by 141.1 points
Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.
red allianceTotal Season APEX 369 ±13.3
Season APEX 69.9Event APEX -5.66Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 95
Season APEX 213.9Event APEX 81.33Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 85.2Event APEX 55.02Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 691 ±11.9
Season APEX 246.4Event APEX -5.66Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 103.7Event APEX -18.25Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 92
Season APEX 340.9Event APEX 49.04Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 159, 2240, 6358
55
/ 100 compatProjected
130.7 pts
~2.2 RP (regional)
Teams: 159, 2240, 6358
Auto
23.9 19%
Teleop
82.2 66%
Endgame
18.9 15%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 57%
Supercharged: 4%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 1619, 2945, 8044
13
/ 100 compatProjected
25.1 pts
~1.0 RP (regional)
Teams: 1619, 2945, 8044
Auto
13.0 72%
Teleop
17.1 94%
Endgame
-12.0 0%
Strengths
- · Strong autonomous coverage
Weaknesses
- · Thin endgame coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 57%
Supercharged: 4%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.2 · Blue 0.99
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score130.7pts
Blue projected score25.1pts
Red win probability79%
Event bonus sample164alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 57%, blue 48%
Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 6%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 105.6
- Score range
- -6–162
- Upset likelihood
- 21%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
369Season APEX691
23.9Auto13
82.2Teleop17.1
18.9Endgame-12
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 43 | 60 |
| teleop | 95 | 96 |
| endgame | 53 | 76 |
| foul | 5 | 10 |
| total | 196 | 242 |
Result
Final score
196 – 242
Prediction missed · off by 141.1 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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