Final · Finals 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

419.41 – 355.65

69%31%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

292 – 269

Prediction correct · off by 107 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 719.8 ±10.5

3288Punchers

Season APEX 60.7Event APEX 16.01Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8044Denham Venom

Season APEX 340.9Event APEX 174.56Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

498The Cobra Commanders

A+

Season APEX 318.2Event APEX 228.84Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 668.3 ±11.2

8334Titan Robotics

Season APEX 75.3Event APEX 39.47Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9068The Chargers

A+

Season APEX 291.9Event APEX 193.83Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4499The Highlanders

A+

Season APEX 301.1Event APEX 122.35Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3288, 8044, 498

/ 100 compat

Projected

419.4 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 3288, 8044, 498

Auto

90.7 22%

Teleop

227.5 55%

Endgame

96.1 23%

Strengths

· 498 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8334, 9068, 4499

/ 100 compat

Projected

355.7 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 8334, 9068, 4499

Auto

80.5 23%

Teleop

191.1 55%

Endgame

73.0 21%

Strengths

· 9068 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.03 · Blue 1.21

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score419.4pts

Blue projected score355.7pts

Red win probability69%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 63.8
Score range: 322–453
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 561 vs event baseline 188.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

719.8Season APEX668.3

90.7Auto80.5

227.5Teleop191.1

96.1Endgame73

15Consistency8

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	97	78
teleop	130	107
endgame	40	84
foul	25	0
total	292	269

Result

Final score

292 – 269

Prediction correct · off by 107 pts

Match videos

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