Final · Finals 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

429.05 – 347.92

73%27%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

335 – 367

Prediction missed · off by 56.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 719.8 ±10.5

3288Punchers

Season APEX 60.7Event APEX 19.74Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8044Denham Venom

Season APEX 340.9Event APEX 177.34Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

498The Cobra Commanders

A+

Season APEX 318.2Event APEX 231.97Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 668.3 ±11.2

8334Titan Robotics

Season APEX 75.3Event APEX 36.77Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9068The Chargers

A+

Season APEX 291.9Event APEX 191.34Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4499The Highlanders

A+

Season APEX 301.1Event APEX 119.81Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3288, 8044, 498

/ 100 compat

Projected

429.1 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 3288, 8044, 498

Auto

90.8 21%

Teleop

233.5 55%

Endgame

98.7 23%

Strengths

· 498 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8334, 9068, 4499

/ 100 compat

Projected

347.9 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 8334, 9068, 4499

Auto

80.8 24%

Teleop

183.7 54%

Endgame

73.6 22%

Strengths

· 9068 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.12 · Blue 1.12

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score429.1pts

Blue projected score347.9pts

Red win probability73%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 81.1
Score range: 315–462
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 702 vs event baseline 183.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

719.8Season APEX668.3

90.8Auto80.8

233.5Teleop183.7

98.7Endgame73.6

14Consistency14

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	85	90
teleop	173	216
endgame	77	41
foul	0	20
total	335	367

Result

Final score

335 – 367

Prediction missed · off by 56.6 pts

Match videos

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