Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

209.91 – 298.06

25%75%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

147 – 413

Prediction correct · off by 88.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 406.5 ±12.8

1977The PowerSquids

Season APEX 103Event APEX 11.73Rank 16Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7421PrepaTec - OVERTURE

Season APEX 205.1Event APEX 146.35Rank 12Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11220The Royal Guard

Season APEX 98.4Event APEX 51.83Rank 8Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 540.4 ±10.4

10333Elevation

Season APEX 74.2Event APEX 35.64Rank 31Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4593Rapid Acceleration

Season APEX 228.9Event APEX 150.7Rank 9Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3354PrepaTec - TecDroid

Season APEX 237.3Event APEX 111.72Rank 23Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1977, 7421, 11220

/ 100 compat

Projected

209.9 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 1977, 7421, 11220

Auto

43.2 20%

Teleop

130.2 59%

Endgame

47.8 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10333, 4593, 3354

/ 100 compat

Projected

298.1 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 10333, 4593, 3354

Auto

52.3 18%

Teleop

161.4 54%

Endgame

83.2 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.23 · Blue 2.17

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score209.9pts

Blue projected score298.1pts

Red win probability25%

Event bonus sample196alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -88.1
Score range: 174–334
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 560 vs event baseline 202.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

406.5Season APEX540.4

43.2Auto52.3

130.2Teleop161.4

47.8Endgame83.2

59Consistency18

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	64
teleop	98	278
endgame	21	71
foul	0	0
total	147	413

Result

Final score

147 – 413

Prediction correct · off by 88.9 pts

Match videos

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