Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
221.25 – 236.36
45%55%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
232 – 181
Prediction missed · off by 33.1 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 348.5 ±13.3
Season APEX 90Event APEX 41.57Rank 15Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 134.6Event APEX 91.65Rank 22Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 123.9Event APEX 88.03Rank 11Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 488.6 ±12.8
Season APEX 123.8Event APEX 65.19Rank 24Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 120.6Event APEX 67.52Rank 6Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 95
Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 103.65Rank 13Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 2465, 9301, 7725
65
/ 100 compatProjected
221.3 pts
~1.6 RP (regional)
Teams: 2465, 9301, 7725
Auto
33.5 15%
Teleop
113.2 52%
Endgame
72.1 33%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 65%
Supercharged: 8%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 9586, 662, 2486
71
/ 100 compatProjected
236.4 pts
~1.9 RP (regional)
Teams: 9586, 662, 2486
Auto
58.3 26%
Teleop
113.8 51%
Endgame
49.5 22%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 65%
Supercharged: 8%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.65 · Blue 1.86
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score221.3pts
Blue projected score236.4pts
Red win probability45%
Event bonus sample196alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 65%, blue 68%
Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 6%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -15.1
- Score range
- 185–272
- Upset likelihood
- 45%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
348.5Season APEX488.6
33.5Auto58.3
113.2Teleop113.8
72.1Endgame49.5
2Consistency14
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 52 | 36 |
| teleop | 123 | 84 |
| endgame | 37 | 21 |
| foul | 20 | 40 |
| total | 232 | 181 |
Result
Final score
232 – 181
Prediction missed · off by 33.1 pts
Match videos
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