Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

476.08 – 258.89

94%6%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

504 – 350

Prediction correct · off by 59.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 665.5 ±11

4944The Hi Fives

Season APEX 127.2Event APEX 86.16Rank 19Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9068The Chargers

A+

Season APEX 291.9Event APEX 221.27Rank 3Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1619Up-A-Creek Robotics

Season APEX 246.4Event APEX 168.65Rank 7Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 540.4 ±10.4

10333Elevation

Season APEX 74.2Event APEX 21.63Rank 31Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4593Rapid Acceleration

Season APEX 228.9Event APEX 137.24Rank 9Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3354PrepaTec - TecDroid

Season APEX 237.3Event APEX 100.02Rank 23Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4944, 9068, 1619

/ 100 compat

Projected

476.1 pts

~2.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 4944, 9068, 1619

Auto

75.6 16%

Teleop

275.8 60%

Endgame

111.4 24%

Strengths

· 9068 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10333, 4593, 3354

/ 100 compat

Projected

258.9 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 10333, 4593, 3354

Auto

43.5 17%

Teleop

146.2 56%

Endgame

70.7 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.6 · Blue 0.79

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score476.1pts

Blue projected score258.9pts

Red win probability94%

Event bonus sample196alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 12%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 217.2
Score range: 224–511
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 854 vs event baseline 195.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

665.5Season APEX540.4

75.6Auto43.5

275.8Teleop146.2

111.4Endgame70.7

15Consistency30

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	53	64
teleop	265	183
endgame	171	98
foul	15	5
total	504	350

Result

Final score

504 – 350

Prediction correct · off by 59.5 pts

Match videos

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