Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

394.1 – 245.67

86%14%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

286 – 406

Prediction missed · off by 134.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 552.2 ±15.6

10686Central Park Nightbots

Provisional

Season APEX 65.7Event APEX 23.78Rank 52Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

2996Cougars Gone Wired

Season APEX 272.6Event APEX 197.74Rank 5Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2240Brute Force

Season APEX 213.9Event APEX 172.58Rank 2Record 9-0-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 403.1 ±14.8

9585RobUL

Season APEX 104.4Event APEX 38.98Rank 34Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 76

1339Angelbotics

Season APEX 138.5Event APEX 115.61Rank 10Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4068Bearbotics

Season APEX 160.2Event APEX 91.08Rank 14Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10686, 2996, 2240

/ 100 compat

Projected

394.1 pts

~2.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 10686, 2996, 2240

Auto

81.3 20%

Teleop

233.7 58%

Endgame

87.8 22%

Strengths

· 2996 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 9585, 1339, 4068

/ 100 compat

Projected

245.7 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 9585, 1339, 4068

Auto

57.5 25%

Teleop

124.9 55%

Endgame

44.9 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.46 · Blue 1

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score394.1pts

Blue projected score245.7pts

Red win probability86%

Event bonus sample196alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 67%

Supercharged bonusred 14%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 148.4
Score range: 211–429
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 692 vs event baseline 193.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

552.2Season APEX403.1

81.3Auto57.5

233.7Teleop124.9

87.8Endgame44.9

19Consistency49

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	106	74
teleop	145	231
endgame	35	86
foul	0	15
total	286	406

Result

Final score

286 – 406

Prediction missed · off by 134.2 pts

Match videos

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