Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

262.17 – 203.09

68%32%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

171 – 227

Prediction missed · off by 57.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 488.6 ±12.8

2486CocoNuts

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 113.21Rank 13Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

662Rocky Mountain Robotics

Season APEX 120.6Event APEX 75.93Rank 6Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 95

9586Denbot

Season APEX 123.8Event APEX 73.03Rank 24Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 380.7 ±15.6

1799Wired-Up!

Provisional

Season APEX 77.2Event APEX 2.38Rank 42Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

7421PrepaTec - OVERTURE

Season APEX 205.1Event APEX 144.45Rank 12Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11220The Royal Guard

Season APEX 98.4Event APEX 56.26Rank 8Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2486, 662, 9586

/ 100 compat

Projected

262.2 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 2486, 662, 9586

Auto

66.7 28%

Teleop

138.5 57%

Endgame

35.8 15%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1799, 7421, 11220

/ 100 compat

Projected

203.1 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 1799, 7421, 11220

Auto

32.8 16%

Teleop

126.6 63%

Endgame

42.2 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.11 · Blue 1.34

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score262.2pts

Blue projected score203.1pts

Red win probability68%

Event bonus sample196alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 68%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 59.1
Score range: 168–297
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 398 vs event baseline 193.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

488.6Season APEX380.7

66.7Auto32.8

138.5Teleop126.6

35.8Endgame42.2

3Consistency31

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	44	55
teleop	50	150
endgame	77	22
foul	0	0
total	171	227

Result

Final score

171 – 227

Prediction missed · off by 57.5 pts

Match videos

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