Playoff · Playoff Match 1 R1
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
443.42 – 211.95
95%5%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
554 – 134
Prediction correct · off by 94.3 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 697.1 ±8.4
Season APEX 160.1Event APEX 57.31Rank 33Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 301.1Event APEX 203.59Rank 4Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 235.9Event APEX 182.52Rank 1Record 9-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 313.5 ±13.9
Season APEX 134.6Event APEX 99.33Rank 22Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 123.9Event APEX 94.61Rank 11Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 55Event APEX 18.01Rank 39Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 2443, 4499, 118
81
/ 100 compatProjected
443.4 pts
~2.6 RP (regional)
Teams: 2443, 4499, 118
Auto
82.7 19%
Teleop
250.1 58%
Endgame
100.1 23%
Strengths
- · 4499 anchors offense
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 58%
Supercharged: 9%
Traversal: 4%
Blue · 9301, 7725, 11025
64
/ 100 compatProjected
212 pts
~0.8 RP (regional)
Teams: 9301, 7725, 11025
Auto
27.1 12%
Teleop
112.9 52%
Endgame
78.7 36%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 58%
Supercharged: 9%
Traversal: 4%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.6 · Blue 0.81
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score443.4pts
Blue projected score212pts
Red win probability95%
Event bonus sample196alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 58%, blue 64%
Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 5%
Traversal bonusred 4%, blue 2%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 231.5
- Score range
- 178–477
- Upset likelihood
- 5%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
697.1Season APEX313.5
82.7Auto27.1
250.1Teleop112.9
100.1Endgame78.7
48Consistency51
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 83 | 37 |
| teleop | 326 | 64 |
| endgame | 145 | 28 |
| foul | 0 | 5 |
| total | 554 | 134 |
Result
Final score
554 – 134
Prediction correct · off by 94.3 pts
Match videos
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