Playoff · Playoff Match 13 R5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

433.09 – 326.46

79%21%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

466 – 454

Prediction correct · off by 80.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 665.5 ±11

4944The Hi Fives

Season APEX 127.2Event APEX 67.75Rank 19Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9068The Chargers

A+

Season APEX 291.9Event APEX 210.77Rank 3Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1619Up-A-Creek Robotics

Season APEX 246.4Event APEX 154.57Rank 7Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 540.4 ±10.4

10333Elevation

Season APEX 74.2Event APEX 44.26Rank 31Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4593Rapid Acceleration

Season APEX 228.9Event APEX 162.34Rank 9Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3354PrepaTec - TecDroid

Season APEX 237.3Event APEX 119.86Rank 23Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4944, 9068, 1619

/ 100 compat

Projected

433.1 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 4944, 9068, 1619

Auto

66.9 16%

Teleop

254.9 60%

Endgame

101.3 24%

Strengths

· 9068 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10333, 4593, 3354

/ 100 compat

Projected

326.5 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 10333, 4593, 3354

Auto

58.2 18%

Teleop

184.0 57%

Endgame

81.3 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.31 · Blue 1.09

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score433.1pts

Blue projected score326.5pts

Red win probability79%

Event bonus sample196alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 12%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 106.6
Score range: 289–470
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 920 vs event baseline 207.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

665.5Season APEX540.4

66.9Auto58.2

254.9Teleop184

101.3Endgame81.3

0Consistency12

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	95	77
teleop	259	233
endgame	112	134
foul	0	10
total	466	454

Result

Final score

466 – 454

Prediction correct · off by 80.2 pts

Match videos

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