Playoff · Playoff Match 11 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

491.55 – 464.12

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

445 – 277

Prediction correct · off by 116.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 697.1 ±8.4

2443Blue Thunder

Season APEX 160.1Event APEX 71.96Rank 33Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4499The Highlanders

A+

Season APEX 301.1Event APEX 218.73Rank 4Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

118Robonauts

Season APEX 235.9Event APEX 200.86Rank 1Record 9-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 665.5 ±11

4944The Hi Fives

Season APEX 127.2Event APEX 78.69Rank 19Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9068The Chargers

A+

Season APEX 291.9Event APEX 220.03Rank 3Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1619Up-A-Creek Robotics

Season APEX 246.4Event APEX 165.4Rank 7Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2443, 4499, 118

/ 100 compat

Projected

491.6 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 2443, 4499, 118

Auto

90.3 19%

Teleop

277.8 57%

Endgame

118.3 24%

Strengths

· 4499 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 4%

Blue · 4944, 9068, 1619

/ 100 compat

Projected

464.1 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 4944, 9068, 1619

Auto

67.6 15%

Teleop

277.4 61%

Endgame

108.1 24%

Strengths

· 9068 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 4%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.87 · Blue 1.56

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score491.6pts

Blue projected score464.1pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample196alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 12%

Traversal bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 27.4
Score range: 427–529
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 722 vs event baseline 203.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

697.1Season APEX665.5

90.3Auto67.6

277.8Teleop277.4

118.3Endgame108.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	53	63
teleop	248	141
endgame	144	68
foul	0	5
total	445	277

Result

Final score

445 – 277

Prediction correct · off by 116.8 pts

Match videos

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