Qualification · Qualification 82

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

201.32 – 90.03

80%20%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

176 – 168

Prediction correct · off by 51.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 421.9 ±12.2

2465KauaiBots

Season APEX 90Event APEX 48.88Rank 15Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1977The PowerSquids

Season APEX 103Event APEX 17.86Rank 16Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4593Rapid Acceleration

Season APEX 228.9Event APEX 134.58Rank 9Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 334.3 ±17.2

1822Electric Calamari

Provisional

Season APEX 106.1Event APEX 7.3Rank 40Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

6704Mid Pacific Owls Robotics

Season APEX 89.9Event APEX 14.09Rank 32Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3648Sparta Robotica

Season APEX 138.3Event APEX 68.64Rank 27Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2465, 1977, 4593

/ 100 compat

Projected

201.3 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 2465, 1977, 4593

Auto

37.8 20%

Teleop

120.4 62%

Endgame

35.6 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1822, 6704, 3648

/ 100 compat

Projected

90 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 1822, 6704, 3648

Auto

-4.4 0%

Teleop

64.6 77%

Endgame

23.6 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.3 · Blue 1.16

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score201.3pts

Blue projected score90pts

Red win probability80%

Event bonus sample196alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 71%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 111.3
Score range: 55–236
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 344 vs event baseline 191.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

421.9Season APEX334.3

37.8Auto-4.4

120.4Teleop64.6

35.6Endgame23.6

28Consistency26

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	54	18
teleop	73	102
endgame	49	48
foul	0	0
total	176	168

Result

Final score

176 – 168

Prediction correct · off by 51.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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