Qualification · Qualification 80

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

154.49 – 133.7

56%44%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

229 – 155

Prediction correct · off by 47.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 331.9 ±16.8

1339Angelbotics

Season APEX 138.5Event APEX 105.03Rank 10Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4388Ridgebotics

Season APEX 104.7Event APEX 26.66Rank 54Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 94

2261Casa Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 88.7Event APEX 22.8Rank 20Record 6-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 308.8 ±13.9

1410The Kraken

Season APEX 104.8Event APEX 44.56Rank 35Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3807Overland BlazerBots

Season APEX 69.4Event APEX -8.79Rank 50Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

9301PrepaTec - MechRams

Season APEX 134.6Event APEX 97.93Rank 22Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1339, 4388, 2261

/ 100 compat

Projected

154.5 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 1339, 4388, 2261

Auto

58.7 41%

Teleop

59.8 42%

Endgame

23.4 16%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1410, 3807, 9301

/ 100 compat

Projected

133.7 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 1410, 3807, 9301

Auto

9.6 7%

Teleop

61.6 48%

Endgame

57.2 45%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.82 · Blue 1.52

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score154.5pts

Blue projected score133.7pts

Red win probability56%

Event bonus sample196alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 20.8
Score range: 100–188
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 384 vs event baseline 191.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

331.9Season APEX308.8

58.7Auto9.6

59.8Teleop61.6

23.4Endgame57.2

61Consistency33

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	56	52
teleop	125	74
endgame	48	29
foul	0	0
total	229	155

Result

Final score

229 – 155

Prediction correct · off by 47.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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