Qualification · Qualification 79

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

186.29 – 311.37

17%83%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

266 – 304

Prediction correct · off by 43.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 487.6 ±16.4

3354PrepaTec - TecDroid

Season APEX 237.3Event APEX 98.33Rank 23Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9552Rambotics

Provisional

Season APEX 114.1Event APEX 25.04Rank 44Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

4293Komodo

Season APEX 136.2Event APEX 62.92Rank 26Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 95

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 500.8 ±14.9

9586Denbot

Season APEX 123.8Event APEX 75.15Rank 24Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2996Cougars Gone Wired

Season APEX 272.6Event APEX 195.37Rank 5Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9585RobUL

Season APEX 104.4Event APEX 40.85Rank 34Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 76

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3354, 9552, 4293

/ 100 compat

Projected

186.3 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 3354, 9552, 4293

Auto

28.7 17%

Teleop

109.5 63%

Endgame

34.3 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9586, 2996, 9585

/ 100 compat

Projected

311.4 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 9586, 2996, 9585

Auto

73.5 23%

Teleop

175.7 56%

Endgame

65.2 21%

Strengths

· 2996 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.09 · Blue 2.41

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score186.3pts

Blue projected score311.4pts

Red win probability17%

Event bonus sample196alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 67%, blue 69%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -125.1
Score range: 152–345
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 570 vs event baseline 190.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

487.6Season APEX500.8

28.7Auto73.5

109.5Teleop175.7

34.3Endgame65.2

9Consistency23

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	87
teleop	155	165
endgame	87	52
foul	0	0
total	266	304

Result

Final score

266 – 304

Prediction correct · off by 43.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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