Qualification · Qualification 78

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

342.01 – 141.95

92%8%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

248 – 308

Prediction missed · off by 130 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 485.9 ±12.8

5526Type C - Peñoles

Season APEX 77.4Event APEX 46.25Rank 45Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

2972Gears and Buccaneers

Season APEX 116.6Event APEX 63Rank 49Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9068The Chargers

A+

Season APEX 291.9Event APEX 232.76Rank 3Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 432.7 ±15.1

1799Wired-Up!

Provisional

Season APEX 77.2Event APEX -16.82Rank 42Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

7421PrepaTec - OVERTURE

Season APEX 205.1Event APEX 134.09Rank 12Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6652Tigres

Season APEX 150.4Event APEX 24.68Rank 17Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5526, 2972, 9068

/ 100 compat

Projected

342 pts

~2.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 5526, 2972, 9068

Auto

38.3 12%

Teleop

202.1 61%

Endgame

89.6 27%

Strengths

· 9068 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1799, 7421, 6652

/ 100 compat

Projected

142 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 1799, 7421, 6652

Auto

37.3 27%

Teleop

76.6 56%

Endgame

23.4 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.55 · Blue 0.86

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score342pts

Blue projected score142pts

Red win probability92%

Event bonus sample196alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 200.1
Score range: 108–376
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 556 vs event baseline 189.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

485.9Season APEX432.7

38.3Auto37.3

202.1Teleop76.6

89.6Endgame23.4

19Consistency91

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	35
teleop	129	214
endgame	90	59
foul	5	0
total	248	308

Result

Final score

248 – 308

Prediction missed · off by 130 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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